The Missing Square

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About this resource

A free 8-page kit on the +50% / −40% coin: a bet that wins 5% a flip on average, yet leaves 86% of players behind after 100 flips. One picture shows why: volatility cuts a square out of your money, and the same square is the −½σ² in Itô's lemma and in Black–Scholes' d2 and sets the Kelly bet (25% here). Exact binomial numbers, twelve interview follow-ups with answers, a cheat sheet and a 60-second answer. The download is a zip with the PDF and a runnable notebook for Colab or Jupyter: 10,000 simulated players, Itô's correction measured on simulated paths, leveraged-ETF drag and the Kelly curve.

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Who is The Missing Square designed for?

It is designed for quantitative-finance candidates and practitioners who want desk-focused explanations, practical diagnostics and interview-ready reasoning.

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